Market Update

Tariffs: The U.S. is extending its tariff deadline from July 9th to August 1st to allow more time for trade negotiations with other countries (who have yet to make deals), per an Executive Order. The Administration has continued to send out formal letters to nations that have not yet made a deal and noted that higher tariffs could be imposed and go into effect on August 1st, as The Guardian reports.

The Administration so far has made deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, and China. 

Vietnam: The U.S. will impose a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, according to Supply Chain Dive. Details on the transshipment provision have not yet been released. In contrast, Vietnam will not impose tariffs on U.S. goods.

United Kingdom: Under the new agreement, the U.S. will apply a 10% tariff on up to 100,000 U.K.-made vehicles annually. Imports exceeding that cap will face a 25% tariff, per Executive Order. Tariffs on U.K.-manufactured auto parts used in vehicles will also be lowered from 25% to 10%.

China: In mid-June, the U.S. and China reached a “framework” for a trade deal, pending approval from both governments. As outlined by the President on social media and reported by Supply Chain Dive, the agreement includes a 55% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on U.S. exports to China.

Air Cargo: Carriers have had to adjust/redeploy capacity on different routes due to the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs and removal of the de minimis exemption, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Additionally, air cargo shipments from Vietnam to the U.S. continue to climb as rising tariffs on China drive a shift in sourcing strategies.

Schedule Reliability: During May 2025, global schedule reliability saw a 7.4% improvement month-over-month, at 65.8%, per Sea-Intelligence data. Interestingly enough, as they note, this is the highest recorded since November 2023. On a year-over-year basis, schedule reliability was up 10%, per their data.

Freight News: Uncertain Currents in Container Trade

As peak season gets closer, there’s been some data showing China-U.S. container traffic is dipping.

First, let’s look at the positive…when looking at the Port of Los Angeles Port Optimizer, it shows that 128,720 TEUs are expected to arrive between July 13th-19th, as Freightwaves reports. This would be an 8.68% increase from the previous week and 13.23% higher than the same week last year.

However, projections are less optimistic for the last two weeks of July. As Freightwaves reports, imports for July 20th-26th are expected to decline to 120,072 TEUs – a 6.72% drop from the previous week. The following week, volumes are projected to fall even further to 78,025 TEUs, marking a sharp 35.02% week-over-week decrease. Again, these are just projections. Time will tell what the data will end up looking like.

Retail sales in June –

Retail sales softened in June as consumer concerns over the effects of government policies on the economy persisted. Total retail sales (minus automobiles and gas) were down 0.33% seasonally adjusted month-over-month but were up 3.19% unadjusted year-over-year in June, according to the National Retail Federation/CNBC’s Retail Monitor.

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Answer: B – The time between placing and receiving an order

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