Retailers and others of the like have had to adjust the moving target represented by tariffs and surrounding uncertainty, and place bets on what inventory to bring in ahead of shifting trade deadlines.

According to a Goldman Sachs note and reported by Supply Chain Brain, earlier in the year, companies absorbed most tariff costs to protect sales, which left U.S. consumers responsible for a select amount of the extra costs. By the middle of the year, margins got tighter, pre-tariff inventories and higher import costs meant consumers had to deal with a more significant burden by fall.

So, what does this mean for consumer spending for this holiday season?

Consumers may see higher prices and fewer promotions, which often leads to more cautious spending patterns. For retailers and importers, that means balancing leaner inventories with demand spikes around peak shopping events, while shippers may face greater pressure to move goods quickly and cost-effectively despite tighter margins. In effect, the ripple of tariff costs extends across the supply chain—forcing companies to be more precise with ordering, routing, and timing decisions if they want to protect profitability and keep shelves stocked through the holiday rush.